It’s prognostication season

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Every January, pundits put on their Janus masks to look back and forward at the same time and make predictions about the year to come. They try to give their words as much gravity as they can, but if we look at history, we see they’re somewhat less reliable than the weather.

Some of the most prominent, and repeated predictions I have read for this year:

• Interest rates will finally go up after a decade at near zero. The prevailing prediction is that the Federal Reserve, the central bank of the US, will raise its rates in the second quarter—but maybe sooner, depending on the performance of the US economy—which will prompt the Bank of Canada to move its rate up at its regular rate-setting, which it hasn’t done for the past 34 rate-setting meetings, or seven years. I have lost count of the number of times some economist or pundit has predicted that “interest rates have to go up sooner or later.”
  
  
• On the other hand, big, bad investment bank Morgan Stanley has just announced there’s a “subjective probability of one in three that the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates in 2015. That terminology is interesting: a “subjective probability.” The closest translation to clear language I can come up with is it’s the writer’s personal feeling.
  
  
• Oil prices may keep falling and there’s no telling when they’ll stop. Over the past couple of months, we’ve been treated to successive economists in expensive suits saying “if the price of a barrel of crude goes below $80—$70—$60…” It’s now under $50, and the latest prediction is that the floor will be $43 before prices start to go up again. Of course, this comes from the same expensive suits, Morgan Stanley, who put forth their “subjective probability” about Canadian interest rates.

The falling price of oil will have far-reaching effects on economies around the world. In Canada, the conservative government has delayed its budget for at least a month to give it more time to “gather data.” This after eight years of betting the economy on oil and other raw resource extraction industries, at the expense of manufacturing industries. Talk about all your eggs in one basket. 

How is it they didn’t see this coming?

Economists have poor track record when it comes to short-range predictions, especially for the coming year. The price of oil is the best example. It has followed a classic bubble pattern: a steep rise followed by steeper decline. It’s happened so many times in the past, in so many other sectors, that it astounds me that no one saw this coming.

Predictions? Maybe they’re useless, when it comes to the economy. From now on, when I read another prediction about the economy, I’m just going to laugh.

Who’s going to die this half-season of 24?

I’ve been a fan of 24 since it launched. It’s never failed to deliver a season of 24 hours (minus commercials) of riveting television that leaves you breathless. So you know where my butt will be for the next 10 Monday nights: on the couch in front of my TV set for the half-season. I wonder: should we now call it 12?

Writers and TV producers like formulas that work. Even 24 follows a formula: only Jack Bauer can save the world, but he has to defeat not only  the bad guys, but the authorities, too. Even though he has saved the world eight times in a row, even after proving he's a good guy each time, even after showing the doubters that they were wrong eight freakin' times, the authorities just want to lock  him away.

There are other pattens I have noticed, too, after watching eight seasons of Jack Bauer saving America and the world. Based only on the experience and my gut feelings, I boldly make some predictions about the coming season.

Who will turn out to be a traitor:

Steve Navarro, the man in charge of the CIA branch in London, played by Benjamin Bratt. What tipped me off: when he orders super-agent Kate Morgan to leave the field facility immediately, instead of waiting out the term of her job, and says “I really am trying to help you.” Help you stay alive when this place blows, he means.

Mark Boudreau, President Heller’s Chief of Staff, because he’s in the most potentially damaging position for a traitor to be. Plus, he’s married to Jack’s long-time love, Audrey, TV’s most annoying returning character. Can she not close her lips?

Who will turn on Jack:

Chloe, of course. Who has more reason to?

Who will turn out to be the indispensable, unforeseen hero:

Chris Tanner, the drone pilot. He won’t be just a victim, because he has too many skills, he’s too smart and he’s determined to set things right.

Who will die:

Erik Ritter, the guy who wants Kate Morgan’s job and taunted the handcuffed Jack Bauer. He thinks he’s better than he is, and he’s determined to prove himself. He’s just going to get in front of a bullet, but not before causing a lot of damage to his own side.

Jordan Reed: Chloe’s boy Chloe. He’s too nice.

President Heller: He’s dealing with incipient Alzheimer’s, his health isn’t perfect, he takes a bunch of pills and he’s heroic. He’ll do something that gets him killed around episode 9.

Mark Boudreau: Because we all hate him.

I didn’t catch his name and cannot find it online, but he’s Jack’s driver and assistant gunman in London. He has Friend of Jack Bauer Syndrome. It’s fatal.

Half of Chloe’s goth hacker group. Because Jack was once in the same room with them, thus infecting them with the same ailment that will kill the Jack's driver.

About three dozen British and American police officers and soldiers. Because that’s just what happens when Jack Bauer’s in town.

Those are my predictions. Now let’s see how accurate I was in 10 weeks.